Mental health service decisionmakers are in need of crucial evidence-based information, that will inform mental health services across England, allowing for effective care to run dependent on local need.

However, no tools were available… until now.

The Solution?

PsyMaptic.

A population-level prediction model that has been developed and validated, looking at data on first episode psychosis [FEP], forecasting the expected number of new people referred, assessed and treated by Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services in England each year, from 2019 to 2025. This projection has been based upon demographic predictions and epidemiological evidence. 

We used a statistical modelling method to help forecast and model data from the years 2019 to 2025. From this, variation in first episode psychosis [FEP] frequency was revealed for people aged 16-64 years old. We used and compared 6 datasets, all of which were validated against observed national NHS first episode psychosis [FEP] data in 2017. As a result, our best fitting model predicted the amount of people who would be referred to Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services in a given year, in England, up until the year 2025. This forecast was able to predict 4 different categories for Early Intervention services: probable first episode psychosis [FEP]; treatment in Early Intervention in Psychosis services; initial assessment by Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services and referral to Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services for “suspected psychosis”. These forecasts have been arranged by sex, age and ethnicity at national and Clinical Commissioning Group Levels.

What have we found?

We found that the factors that provided best fit to observed new first episode psychosis [FEP] cases at a national and Clinical Commissioning Groups level in 2017 are as follows:

• Age
• Sex
• Ethnicity
• Small-area-level deprivation
• Social fragmentation
• Regional cannabis use

By 2025, PsyMaptic forecasted 11,067 new treated cases per year. And, for every ten new treated cases, 21 and 23 people would be assessed and referred to Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services, respectively, for suspected psychosis.

To conclude, PsyMaptic provides an accurate and validated tool to inform clinical provision of Early Intervention in Psychosis [EIP] services about future population need for care, based on local variation of major social determinants of psychosis (age, sex, ethnicity, small-area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and regional cannabis use).