Predicted First Episode Psychosis per annum at Local Authority Level


Terms and Conditions

PsyMaptic (,, provides open-use epidemiological prediction models which provide forecasts for the expected count and incidence of psychiatric disorders.

Models for all psychiatric disorders has undergone academic peer review prior publication on this website. Nevertheless, by their very nature predictions contain a degree of error, which must be taken into consideration when using our tool. Users are advised to read the accompanying peer-reviewed publication for each model prior to using the data provided on this website. Users are also recommended to read the methodology documentation and user guide provided on this website prior to using our prediction models.

It is also vital to note that our tool forecasts the expected incidence of clinically-relevant first episode psychoses in different regions of England and Wales per year. Actual demand for psychosis services, including EIS, may be significantly higher, given a proportion of people who will present to services with some level of psychopathological need, but who may not be in their first episode of a psychotic disorder.

By accepting the Terms of Use, you agree to have understood the risks and limitations involved in using the predictions provided by our methodology. These risks and limitations include, but are not limited to, the nature of statistical prediction models which provide an inherent degree of uncertainty around any forecast of future events. Prediction estimates should always be used in conjunction with the range of uncertainty around that estimate, measured as prediction error and reported via 95% prediction intervals. Our models are based on a number of assumptions, which by accepting these Terms of Use, you agree to. We accept no responsibility for any instances where the observed count or rate of disorder is different from that forecast by our models, for any region or regions, or for any given sociodemographic group or groups.

By accepting are Terms of Use, you agree that we shall not be held liable in the event that the observed count of cases in any given region or sociodemographic group, however broad or specific, differs from that forecast by our models.

We reserve the right to update prediction models to improve forecasting at any point. All updates will be documented on this website, indicated via version numbers. Prior to use, you hereby agree that you have read and understood the methodology used in generating the forecasts presented here. Major changes to the forecast methodology will have undergone additional academic peer-review. Other updates to the models, including the addition of new empirical data, will not necessarily have undergone peer review, but will have adhered to the methodology described in our peer-reviewed publications.

You, the end user, may use the data provided here for any legal and ethically-approved purpose, including, but not limited to healthcare planning, health economics, health service commissioning, health services research, epidemiology, aetiological research and public health.

By using the predictions provided here you accept the assumptions, risks and limitations inherent in forecasting, as set forth, but not limited to those issues described in the accompanying documentation and peer-reviewed publications which describe this work. You agree that we, the developers of PsyMaptic models, will not be held liable or otherwise accountable for any adverse outcome which emanates from the use of the models and forecasts provided here.

Copyright of this tool belongs to Dr James Kirkbride, Professor Peter Jones and Dr Dan Jackson.

You are asked to agree to these terms and conditions before viewing our prediction data. 

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Local Authority Level Predictions

Maps display predicted counts of new cases or incidence rates at Local Authority District level per annum. For predictions at the broader “County” level, see our other map. Use the top left panel to toggle between maps. The top middle panel can be used to display the data in various graphical forms, and the top right panel can be used to select specific regions. See guidance notes, below, and user guide for details of how to use this software. Our methodology contains further details on how PsyMaptic predictions were estimated.

Please note: the PsyMaptic tool may be slow to load over slow internet connections. See our recommended system requirements.

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1. Total annual estimates of expected counts of cases in England, Wales and England & Wales combined can be found here. The above data may be downloaded in tabular form, here.

2. All maps are displayed to show either the predicted count of cases or incidence rate for a given group, in a given Local Authority district [LADs], over a given year. Prediction data are presented with their 95% prediction intervals, which should be utilised for any exercise based on this data. 

3. We have categorised predicted data for all maps according to the median of the distribution of the predicted count or rate displayed, using the following five categories:

  • 0 – 50th percentile (i.e. below the median)
  • 51st – 75th percentile
  • 76th – 90th percentile
  • 91st – 95th percentile
  • 96th – 100th percentile

Each map therefore shows the relative distribution (and severity) across England & Wales in terms of predicted counts and rates for the given sociodemographic indicator displayed. Maps do not show the relative severity of expected counts and rates between sociodemographic indicators, and the relative scales (displayed in the legends) should always be considered. For example, the top category for a given map will always show LADs in the top 5th percentile of the predicted count or rate of all LADs in England & Wales. However, the absolute values within this category will vary. To illustrate this, consider predicted count maps for men versus women aged 16-64 years old. For men, the count of predicted cases in the top 5th percentile lied between 50.0 and 145.4, but for women lied between 29.5 and 90.9. Serious users of this data should consider the absolute differences in predicted values between groups, as well as the relative geographical differences  in predicted rates within groups.

4. All maps present the point estimate of the predicted count or rate derived from our prediction model, PsyMaptic. Users of this data are strongly advised to read the latest methodology documented on this website, as well as the peer-reviewed publications which detail the validation of our modelling approach. Our version log details changes of our prediction models and their predictive validity.