Download tabulated prediction data for first episode psychosis in England & Wales


Terms and Conditions

PsyMaptic (,, provides open-use epidemiological prediction models which provide forecasts for the expected count and incidence of psychiatric disorders.

Models for all psychiatric disorders has undergone academic peer review prior publication on this website. Nevertheless, by their very nature predictions contain a degree of error, which must be taken into consideration when using our tool. Users are advised to read the accompanying peer-reviewed publication for each model prior to using the data provided on this website. Users are also recommended to read the methodology documentation and user guide provided on this website prior to using our prediction models.

It is also vital to note that our tool forecasts the expected incidence of clinically-relevant first episode psychoses in different regions of England and Wales per year. Actual demand for psychosis services, including EIS, may be significantly higher, given a proportion of people who will present to services with some level of psychopathological need, but who may not be in their first episode of a psychotic disorder.

By accepting the Terms of Use, you agree to have understood the risks and limitations involved in using the predictions provided by our methodology. These risks and limitations include, but are not limited to, the nature of statistical prediction models which provide an inherent degree of uncertainty around any forecast of future events. Prediction estimates should always be used in conjunction with the range of uncertainty around that estimate, measured as prediction error and reported via 95% prediction intervals. Our models are based on a number of assumptions, which by accepting these Terms of Use, you agree to. We accept no responsibility for any instances where the observed count or rate of disorder is different from that forecast by our models, for any region or regions, or for any given sociodemographic group or groups.

By accepting are Terms of Use, you agree that we shall not be held liable in the event that the observed count of cases in any given region or sociodemographic group, however broad or specific, differs from that forecast by our models.

We reserve the right to update prediction models to improve forecasting at any point. All updates will be documented on this website, indicated via version numbers. Prior to use, you hereby agree that you have read and understood the methodology used in generating the forecasts presented here. Major changes to the forecast methodology will have undergone additional academic peer-review. Other updates to the models, including the addition of new empirical data, will not necessarily have undergone peer review, but will have adhered to the methodology described in our peer-reviewed publications.

You, the end user, may use the data provided here for any legal and ethically-approved purpose, including, but not limited to healthcare planning, health economics, health service commissioning, health services research, epidemiology, aetiological research and public health.

By using the predictions provided here you accept the assumptions, risks and limitations inherent in forecasting, as set forth, but not limited to those issues described in the accompanying documentation and peer-reviewed publications which describe this work. You agree that we, the developers of PsyMaptic models, will not be held liable or otherwise accountable for any adverse outcome which emanates from the use of the models and forecasts provided here.

Copyright of this tool belongs to Dr James Kirkbride, Professor Peter Jones and Dr Dan Jackson.

You are asked to agree to these terms and conditions before viewing our prediction data. 

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Prediction data on the expected count and incidence rate of first episode psychosis in England and Wales per annum may be freely downloaded on this page. Prediction data is based on our current PsyMaptic prediction model. Users are strongly advised to read the accompanying methodology and user guide before downloading this data.

Data is available in Excel format and is presently published at national, County or Local Authority District [LAD] level. Each database contains the overall predicted count and incidence rate of psychotic disorder, as well as predicted counts and rates stratified by broad age group (16-35, 36-64, 16-64 years) and sex. Data at a national level is additionally available by ethnicity, but this is not presently available at the LAD level (see our FAQ for more information). We also publish the 2011 Census denominator we used alongside these estimates, which were used to derived the expected count of cases. 95% prediction intervals for counts and 95% confidence intervals for rates are also published in these databases.

Downloadable prediction data

Filename Version Geography Diagnostic outcome(s) Scales Indicators Download
PsyMaptic_Psychosis_National_Summary_v1-0.xlsx v1.0, 04/06/2014 England, Wales, England & Wales ICD-10 F10-39 first episode psychosis Counts of new cases & denominator (2011) data Overall, broad age group (16-35, 36-64, 16-64), sex, ethnic group (10 categories)
PsyMaptic_Psychosis_LAD_v1-0.xlsx v1.0, 04/06/2014 Local Authority Districts in England & Wales ICD-10 F10-39 first episode psychosis Counts of new cases & denominator (2011) data Overall, broad age group (16-35, 36-64, 16-64) and sex, 7 ethnic groups
PsyMaptic_Psychosis_County_v1-1.xlsx v1.1, 01/08/2014 Counties, London Boroughs, Unitary Authorities & Metropolitan Districts in England, UA in Wales ICD-10 F10-39 first episode psychosis Counts of new cases & denominator (2011) data Overall, broad age group (16-35, 36-64, 16-64) and sex, 7 ethnic groups


You may also view this data in geographical form, on our prediction maps, available at local authority or county levels.

See our version log for a history of different versions of our PsyMaptic psychosis incidence prediction models

We may also be able to provide bespoke commissioned data at other levels of geography, for bespoke regions and for specific combinations of sociodemographic groups upon request. If you are interested in this service, please contact us for more details.